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Our main prediction: 2025 will bee a great year to build great companies. The pace of change has never been faster, bringing with it an equally rapid creation of new opportunities.
For Europe, it’s is a defining moment. The US continues to pull ahead, and if we want to compete on a global stage, we need to step up—working together, breaking barriers, and pushing forward with confidence. There are so many areas where we’re well-poised to lead—yes, AI is one of them!—but also health, climate, fintech, and more.
Our partners have compiled our 21 predictions for the trends and forces shaping the tech and entrepreneurship landscape in 2025.
Areas of activity
AI... and the rest. These are related to the areas we want to build in at Hexa. Find out more about them here.
1. Smaller, smarter AI models will take over.
Quentin Nickmans: LLMs are reaching their limits. Incremental updates to big models will deliver diminishing returns, and the focus will shift to lighter, cheaper, task- and industry-specific AI. These smaller models, tailored to specific verticals, will gain traction because they’re faster, more efficient, and less resource-intensive than their larger counterparts.
2. The term "AI agents" will disappear.
Florent Quinti: The label "AI agents" will fade as these systems become more integrated into everyday software. What we now call AI agents will simply evolve into smarter software that handle complex tasks autonomously, like managing schedules or processing data, without being recognized as a separate category.
3. AI will move from task execution to strategic decision-making.
Florent Quinti: The next generation of AI will no longer just act like a junior assistant completing tasks. It will take on a more strategic role, making decisions and taking proactive actions based on larger goals, much like a manager guiding a team toward a target.
4. The first unicorn with only a voice interface will emerge.
Matthieu Vaxelaire: We’ll see the first billion-dollar company built entirely around voice. No screens or clicks—just verbal interaction. Advances in speech technology will make this possible, driving adoption in areas like customer service, productivity tools, and hands-free consumer apps.
5. Apple will out-subscribe ChatGPT.
Matthieu Vaxelaire: Apple’s AI-powered services will surpass ChatGPT in subscribers. Apple’s ecosystem, with its deep integration across devices like iPhones, Macs, and wearables, gives it a unique advantage to offer more accessible and seamless AI tools to a massive user base.
6. MVPs will be built without a CTO.
Ugo Vollmer: As AI-powered coding tools mature, founders will be able to prototype MVPs without needing deep programming knowledge. This shift could reshape early-stage startup teams, reducing the reliance on technical co-founders and opening the door for a new wave of non-technical entrepreneurs to launch companies.
7. Climate tech 2.0 will be more proactive.
Thibaud Elzière: The next wave of climate tech software will go beyond just tracking carbon footprints—it’ll actively help reduce emissions. For example, an app that teaches eco-friendly driving habits could cut the carbon impact of cars by 10%.
8. Vertical SaaS will become hyper-niched
Matthieu Vaxelaire: Vertical SaaS will increasingly focus on hyper-specific industries. The era of broad, one-size-fits-all platforms is over—success will go to platforms that target razor-sharp, industry-specific needs. Companies that fail to carve out a niche risk being left behind as more tailored solutions take the lead.
Society and politics
9. We will need to push for a stronger Europe.
Thibaud Elzière: The US is pulling further ahead, and Europe can’t afford to sit still. In 2025, we’ll need to work harder on uniting across borders—things like a unified corporate structure could make it easier for European businesses to compete globally.
10. Cyber threats will escalate with AI.
Ugo Vollmer: Agentic AI will enable more advanced and frequent cyberattacks, opening the door for SaaS companies to build innovative security tools. From AI-powered threat detection to solutions that protect against voice-cloned scams and other emerging attack types, there’s a growing demand for software that can stay ahead of increasingly sophisticated threats. Startups that address these challenges will be well-positioned to thrive.
11. Massive disinformation will erode public trust.
Ugo Vollmer: Social platforms like X, TikTok, and Meta have evolved into powerful engines of disinformation, incentivized by their business models. With generative AI enabling content and bot creation at scale, and hybrid warfare led by actors like Russia, public trust will continue to decline. This will drive a rise in populism and highlight the urgent need for initiatives that strengthen EU sovereignty and protect democracies — the tech industry will have a role to play.
Company building
12. There will be a ‘unicorn’ shakeout.
Thibaud Elzière: Many French unicorns and big startups are at a crossroads. The ones that adapt quickly to the AI revolution could bounce back to their 2021 valuations within a few years. Others won’t be so lucky—they’ll struggle to stay relevant and may fade away.
13. More startups that last raised 2-3 years ago will fail.
Augustin Celier: Startups that raised funds in 2020-2022 face a critical choice: become profitable, raise more funds, or exit. Many will struggle to meet these goals, leading to more failures this year. At the same time, VCs will continue having trouble raising new funds, with some choosing to close their operations. As a result, we’ll see more fire sales and closures across various types of companies.
14. The MVP-to-MSP transition will accelerate.
Quentin Nickmans: AI is making it faster than ever to move from MVP to MSP. Proof of concept can now be achieved in record time, enabling companies to quickly test and explore new opportunities. What used to be just wireframes or Figma designs can now be transformed into functional—if not fully robust—products almost overnight.
Startup funding
15. Raising a Seed will continue to be tough for 'non-obvious' startups.
Amaury Sepulchre: Seed funds will continue playing it safe, focusing on hot AI deals and bankable teams as many funds struggle with performance and fundraising. This will make it much harder for underdog teams or unconventional ideas to secure funding—a missed opportunity, as many of the past decade’s big winners came from contrarian bets.
16. We will fully recover from the 2020-22 bubble.
Amaury Sepulchre: Startup valuations have largely been marked down, and many scale-ups have adjusted to more sustainable cash burn levels. Healthy SaaS companies will see net dollar retention climb back above 100%, signaling a return to stability and growth.
17. New types of tech investors will emerge…
Amaury Sepulchre: Tech investing is no longer just about traditional venture capital. As investment cycles grow longer and more companies fall outside the "VC fundable" category, new approaches will take shape. In 2025, we’ll see the rise of secondary markets for trading startup shares and the growth of "venture buy-outs," where investors take controlling stakes in startups. Flexible models—such as club deals and co-investments—will also grow, offering alternative ways to fund and scale startups in a shifting market.
18. …Leading to the creation of ‘the Blackstone of tech’.
Amaury Sepulchre: We’ll see the rise of large, diversified investment platforms in tech. These could include VC and private equity firms expanding their reach or family offices professionalizing their approach to tech investing. These platforms will act as "one-stop shops" for funding, spanning multiple stages and strategies, reshaping how tech companies secure investment.
19. The M&A market will heat up thanks to startups focusing on profitability…
Augustin Celier: As startup funding continues to be tough, many companies will realize they’ve built solid businesses but aren’t delivering the 10x innovation they hoped for. These businesses, while not hyper-scalable, can thrive with smaller teams and smarter spending. Profitability will evolve from a forced trend (2022-2024) to a mainstream priority in 2025, making these companies attractive targets for Private Equity. Some VCs will adapt by adopting PE strategies or even creating PE arms, as Hexa Scale has pioneered.
20. …And pressure for VCs to return capital to investors.
Quentin Nickmans: VCs under pressure to return capital to their investors will see smaller, strategic exits as a way to deliver returns and keep LPs satisfied, further contributing to the increased M&A activity within the startup scene.
21. Solo GPs will reshape early-stage investing.
Thibaud Elzière: Solo GPs are stepping up alongside business angels. At the same time, traditional VC funds are shifting their focus to larger seed rounds and Series A investments, leaving more room for these solo players to lead smaller, earlier deals.
If you’re ready to seize the opportunities of 2025 and build something extraordinary: